Hello DNR17,
I am no expert on the speed with which electric will nudge combustion out of the market. If I was, I wouldn't be sitting on this commuter train typing this post!
However, there is something called the Adoption Curve. Sometimes it's called the Innovation Curve. It is something all companies use when trying to gain a foothold in the market for a new product and then get it to mainstream. After that, you can reduce the marketing budget as the consumer does the rest.
So, thinking about where you live (city and rural will be different as I live in the rural Scottish Borders and I can tell you that diesel has a few years left in it around these parts), where do you think folk are on the adoption curve?
My guesstimate is that it's the Innovators who are pure electric. That's a way off of mainstream yet. Innovators are the geeks but they don't really drive the buying habits of the rest of us. It's the Early Majority that are the influencers and who make the next group, the Early Majority, adopt the new technology. Check Google and you will see the chart and the percentages of the population that fall into each group. It's always the same, whatever the product. Only the speed of adoption changes but it always follows this pattern. Apple know this, believe me.
So, take a look around you. As a percentage, how many cars are pure electric right now. Project forward twelve months (12-24mths might be as far as you can accurately foresee). What do you think the adoption rate will be by then. After that, it really depends upon legislation, infrastructure and incentives. And think about the logistical challenges for the National Grid and charging points for folk living in cities without garages or drives etc. Plus the demand for Li-ion and suchlike will be huge, can the supply of finite resource keep up?
BBC published this today: We're driving to an electric future, but how do we keep the kettle on?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41011008
And finally, for anyone worried about residuals in 3-5yrs on their diesels...... the Adoption Curve says that the Late Majority and ever present Laggards will buy our cars - cars which to them will remain desirable.
Velar diesels are Euro 6 compliant. I think that this, plus the brand and new style direction will mean our cars will be fine for resale in a few years time. The used car buyer won't have the money to access premium electric cars at 5yrs old. They will still hanker after diesel, will be prepared to pay a premium in tax or at the pump as the availability of used electric premium cars will be limited and they will worry about battery pack performance. Just don't ask me to guarantee that!
Earlier today, the BBC continued their excellent series of articles on inventions that changed the way we live and work. This week it's about electricity. They suggest it took fifty years after the first electric motors were installed to replace steam in factories before productivity gains and Returns on Investment really started to flow. The reason? Inventions like this, to have a profound impact, need a transformation in thinking about how they are deployed and how behaviours need to change as a result. For the factory owners of the early 20th century, it was the need to redesign factories, their production lines and acknowledge that workers could now choose the pace at which they worked rather than the steam engine driving all of the pullies and gears running through the factory site.
I suspect car usage and travel solutions will need to change more significantly, especially in cities, than just swapping combustion for electric. A bigger shift will be needed.
Interesting question you pose!
Best wishes,
Arianne
